OPEC+ Core Group Likely to Hold October Output Steady Amid Middle East Transit Disruptions

OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current crude oil output levels for October during an upcoming virtual gathering of seven core alliance members, according to three sources close to the matter cited by Reuters and reported by OilPrice.com. Delegates from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman are scheduled to meet online at 11:00 GMT on Sunday. The core group has spent much of 2026 gradually increasing its monthly production quotas, with the September target completing a phased rollback of 1.65 million barrels per day in supply cuts that were originally agreed upon in 2023.

Despite higher formal output targets, physical volumes delivered to international markets have fallen short of official allowances. Production figures compiled by market observers show that while OPEC output expanded by 1.17 million barrels per day in July, total volumes remained significantly below the group's cumulative quotas. Maritime disruptions linked to the conflict involving Iran have impaired Gulf export flows passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while ongoing hostilities in Ukraine have hampered export operations out of Russia and Kazakhstan.

Due to severe export constraints across the Strait of Hormuz, analytical assessments cited by Reuters indicate that formal production decisions by OPEC+ currently exert diminished leverage over global pricing structures and market share dynamics. Physical market sentiment has focused heavily on supply security and transit risks rather than official quota targets. As reported by OilPrice.com, Brent crude was trading near $94 per barrel on Wednesday against a backdrop of renewed U.S.-Iran military engagements and security threats against commercial tanker traffic in the Middle East Gulf.

Beyond the core group's monthly policy adjustments, a separate tier of supply reductions covering the majority of the 21 OPEC+ member nations remains slated to run through the end of 2026. Market focus is increasingly shifting toward the establishment of 2027 production baselines, which form the foundation for individual sovereign quotas. Independent petroleum consulting firm DeGolyer and MacNaughton, headquartered in Dallas, is currently conducting a comprehensive capacity assessment for most OPEC+ participating nations, with final review findings expected in late September.

The upcoming baseline review comes amidst evolving member dynamics and internal capacity disputes within the producer group. Iraq has actively sought an upward revision to its production quota to better reflect expanded domestic capacity. Meanwhile, structural membership changes have already impacted the coalition; the United Arab Emirates departed OPEC in May citing dissatisfaction with quota allocations relative to its expanded production potential, while Venezuela is currently evaluating a potential exit from the alliance.